CNN
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Donald Trump continues to hold an edge over President Joe Biden as the campaign and the former president’s criminal trial move forward, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in the next round, opinions about the first term of each man running for a second four-year term in the White House now appear to be working in Trump’s favor, with most Americans saying that, looking back, the term of Trump as president was a success, while a large majority say Bidens has so far been a failure.
Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters remains steady at 49 percent in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while the Bidens are at 43%, not much different from January. 45%
Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure. In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president to be a failure.
Assessing Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency so far has been a failure, while 39% say it has been a success. That’s far worse than the 57% who rated the first year of his administration as a failure in January 2022, with 41% calling it a success.
Republicans are now more united in the idea that Trump’s presidency was a success than Democrats that Biden’s has been. Overall, 92% of Republicans say Trump’s time in office is a success, while only 73% of Democrats say Biden’s has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trump’s presidency was successful, while only 37% see Biden’s as a success.
There is some overlap in views of the accomplishments of the two most recent presidents, with 14 percent of Americans saying they see both as failures, while 8 percent say they are both successes. About half of registered voters, 47 percent, see Biden’s presidency so far as a failure while saying Trump’s has been a success, while only 30 percent say Biden’s has been successful and Trump’s has not. Public opinion of former presidents generally rises in retrospect, although no other modern president has attempted a similar return to power after an electoral loss.
Negative views of Biden’s performance in office have persisted throughout much of his presidency. In the new poll, 60% disapprove of his handling of the job and 40% approve, about the same as it has been in CNN polls for more than a year. Even Biden’s strongest issue approval ratings in the poll are also in negative territory, with 45% approving of his handling of health care policy and 44% approving of his handling of the debt of student loans. And his worst approval rating for his handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza comes in at 28% approval to 71% disapproval, including an 81% disapproval mark among under-35s and majority disapproval among Democrats (53%).
Biden’s approval ratings for the economy (34%) and inflation (29%) remain deeply negative as voters say economic concerns are most important to them when choosing a candidate than in each of the last two presidential contests. In the new poll, 65 percent of registered voters say the economy is extremely important to their vote for president, compared with 40 percent who felt that way in early 2020 and 46 percent who said the same at about this time in 2016. Those voters who say the economy is a big break for Trump in a matchup against Biden, 62% to 30%.
A large majority of all Americans, 70 percent, say economic conditions in the U.S. are poor, with many, especially Republicans, feeling this way saying their views would be more affected by a political change than by a change in the economy itself. About 4 in 10 of this group (41%) say a change in political leadership in Washington would do more to change their impressions of the economy than a lower inflation rate, a change in their personal finance or a sustained increase in the economy. Stock market. About 6 in 10 Republicans (61%) who say the economy is in bad shape say a change in leadership would change their views, compared with 13% of Democrats who feel the same way.
After the policy, a decline in the inflation rate could change the minds of a significant share of those who feel the economy is in bad shape, 37% feel this way, and far fewer say a change positive in your personal finances (14%) or a rise in the stock market (3%) which has the same effect.
Americans’ perception of their own finances also remains negative, with 53% saying they are dissatisfied with their personal financial situation, while 47% are satisfied. , people of color (64% say they are dissatisfied), and younger Americans (61% of those under 45 say they are dissatisfied).
Looking at other priority issues for the upcoming election, 58% of voters see protecting democracy as an extremely important issue, the only other issue tested that most consider central to their choice. Almost half see immigration, crime and gun policy as deeply important (48% each), with health care (43%), abortion (42%) and Supreme Court nominations USA (39%) each very important to about 4 in 10 voters. . At the lower end of the scale, only 33% consider foreign policy important, 27% climate change, 26% the Israel-Hamas war, and 24% student loans.
There are sharp partisan differences on which issues are most critical to electing a president. Among Democratic-aligned voters, protecting democracy (67%), abortion (54%), the economy (52%), gun policy (51%) and health care (49 %) are key for half or more, while on the GOP side, it’s the economy (79%), immigration (71%), crime (65%) and then democracy (54%).
Impressions of the candidates
Beyond the issues, impressions of both candidates remain largely negative (58% of voters have an unfavorable view of Biden, 55% of Trump), and a narrow majority of voters, 53%, say they are dissatisfied with the candidates they have to choose. in this year’s presidential contest.
A whopping 17% of registered voters say they have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, and when choosing between the two, they split for Trump, 43% to 31%, with 25% of that group saying they would vote for someone else skip the contest entirely or just aren’t sure who they would support.
Among all voters, when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included in the race, Trump has 42% to Bidens 33%, with Kennedy at 16%, West at 4% and Stein at 4%. 3% Kennedy pulls 13% each from Biden and Trump supporters in the initial two-way showdown.
In the Biden-Trump matchup, the poll finds Biden doing worse than in previous CNN polls among younger voters, trailing Trump by a 51% to 40% margin among voters under 35 . Biden’s deficit with voters in this group is largely driven by those who did not vote in 2020. With this group excluded, voters aged 18-34 in this poll split Biden’s 46% to 47 Trump’s % While not all polls publish cross-tabulations or use the same age ranges when reporting results, other recent polls have shown a wide range of results for younger voters when testing a matchup between Trump and Biden, ranging from an 18-point lead for Trump among under-30s in a mid-March Fox News poll to a 21-point lead for Biden among under-30s in a Pew poll Research earlier this month.
Among all voters, Biden remains slightly behind Trump in the share of voters who have ruled out voting for him: 52% say there is no chance they will support him, while 47% he says there is no way he will. Trump, both numbers are similar to the level found in a fall CNN poll. A small share of registered voters, 5% for Biden, 3% for Trump, say that while they are not currently supporting that candidate, they would consider them.
But the poll finds that Biden voters and Trump voters are largely at odds. Among those who do not currently support Biden, 66% say they do not understand why anyone would support him, and 63% of those who do not support Trump say they do not understand why anyone would support him.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from April 18-23 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 967 registered voters. Surveys were conducted online or over the phone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. For results among registered voters, it’s plus or minus 3.8 points.
CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy and Ed Wu contributed to this story.
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